Early Returns

Jay Cutler might finally have "that season."  

He looks locked in. Need proof?

Smooth.

Other 1st half reactions:

• Aaron Hernandez will lead all tight ends in receptions, surpassing Jimmy Graham's 99 in 2011.
• Jimmy Graham will lead all tight ends in touchdowns - just reiterating.  And he'll lead the league.  Yup.
• Brandon Lloyd will be the best free agent WR signing, IF... he gets more than 5 touches.
• Pierre Garcon will be the best free agent WR signing, IF...he can stay on the field 3 plays in a row.
• Julio Jones will lead all WRs in TDs, IF...Roddy White catches 100 balls for a 3rd straight season.
• Jamaal Charles?  Looks healthy.
• DeMarco Murray?  Looks healthy.
• Adrian Peterson?  Looks healthy.
• Team ACL lives!

Stress

There is no such thing as a relaxing year of fantasy football.  Like life, it will have its peaks and valleys.  The lows are painfully low, and the highs are incomparably high.  I’ve chronicled my own successes, and painfully transcribed my stunning losses. 

Miracles happen in this game.  And everyone associates a miracle with an amazing, exciting, positive event. 

It’s easy to forget about the shit end of the stick. 

Yeah, you play this game and there’s a good chance you end up part of a miracle.  But there’s a 50% chance you’re the person crying in the corner, whispering to your pillow, 

“I don’t know who I am anymore.”

Here’re a few reflections I’ve had over the years concerning Fantasy Football:

It challenges your memory, it creates traitorous allegiances, and tests your loyalty. 

It causes your heart to race.  It can ruin a day.  A week.  An entire offseason.

It makes you lie to others (specifically so you can stay home Sunday)

It demands your full attention, like a puppy, or a special lady.  -->

It affronts your dignity, pride, and intelligence.

It tests the boundaries of friendship. 

Look, no matter the positives, that’s a glaring list.  

How is this worth it?  

Why do we do this to ourselves? 

We do it to etch our names on a trophy.  

We do it for the bragging rights.  

We do it to win. 

Stress is an appropriate measurement for this week’s player analysis.  By now you have drafted and are ready to go.  But that doesn’t mean your planning is done.  As always, the cornerstone of my blog is a complete detachment from your players.  They are tools, investments – pawns in your quest for victory.  No one is off limits if it keeps you on the road to victory.  

With that in mind, here are the Stress Players, ranked from most (Tier 4) to least (Tier 1) reliable:

Tier 4 - 

Nothing A Beer Won't Solve

This tier has some small questions to answer.  But on the whole, these are First Round picks, and that's the way it should be.

Matthew Stafford
Had some injury troubles to start his career.  Played 16 games last season.  Half of Fantasy's best duo.  Could finish as the Top QB.

Calvin Johnson

The other half.  Forget the Madden Curse.  Forget the historically expected drop-off.  Believe your eyes.

Arian Foster
In the same boat as Stafford.  He's missed a few games.  Fortunately, one of his games is worth two of nearly every other RB.  He's a monster.  

Drew Brees

New coach?  New offense?  No matter.  He's the most accurate passer in the league, in a pass-happy offense, and his team is healthier this year than last.  Could also finish as the Top QB.  And even more likely to do so than Stafford.

Tier 3 - 

Squeeze One Off, You'll Feel Better

The tier of holdouts, contract disputes, and bad blood.  Don't expect these guys to make DeSean Jackson-ish claims about effort.  They get plenty of touches, but you never know how far pride will take some people.

Chris Johnson

He is the least of my worries, as his holdout did result in a new contract.  However, if Tennessee gets off to a bad start, might we see this freshly paid back's effort deteriorate?

Maurice Jones-Drew

I think we all cringed a bit when MJD reported to the Jags.  "They wouldn't trade me, they wouldn't pay me, so I came back."  I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of his press conference.  How much is he really going to give the Jags?  And how long until he's permanently splitting time with Rashad Jennings?

Wes Welker

He's the best receiver in football, in the more literal sense, in that he catches the most balls.  There are ungodly physical talents in the NFL, all of whom should overshadow Wes; Andre, Calvin, Larry, AJ, Julio, Dez.  But Welker consistently outshines the majority.  It's a combination of skill, effort, and an all-time great quarterback. He can't feel loved after getting the Franchise Tag.

Mike Wallace

He was a Top 10 receiver last year.  A brief holdout made him plummet in the rankings.  On the field, he's one of the best deep threats in the league, and his QB takes full advantage.  But with trade talk looming, and no new deal imminent, those 50 yard bombs might sail just over his fingertips.

Tier 2 - 

Not Exactly Glass-Half-Full, Are You?

Frequent injuries and an unreliable history might derail this tier's seasons.  They are all Top 15 at their position, and Top 15 on the "Most Likely to Miss 8 games" list.

Andre Johnson

He used to be The Johnson.  Now he is a total question mark.  Like his teammate Arian Foster, few can rival Andre's talent.  Unlike Foster, he doesn't bounce back from injury the same way.  It's Top 5 or bust for Andre.  There's no middle ground.

Ryan Mathews

Especially in PPR leagues, Ryan Mathews has McFadden-like potential.  He's as solid receiving as he is running, but his durability is deplorable so far.  Also, he doesn't have a lot of career touchdowns.  The major upside is the departure of Mike Tolbert.  Aside from Mathews, the San Diego running game is weak, so expect big things if Mathews can heal up.

Frank Gore

Gore is a workhorse, and despite his injury history, he played 16 games last season.  Any given game, Frank is a threat for 100 yards and 2 TDs.  Can't argue that.  But we aren't naive.  Kendall Hunter looks good, and the Niners are looking to the future.  Good things can happen, but you should be skeptical.  

Marshawn Lynch

He had an incredible year in 2011.  He almost cracked the RB Top 5.  He just got paid.  Sounds promising, right? Let's crush that right here.

He's never played 16 games.  He's never averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry in a season.  His QB could change daily.  His back hurts.  Oh yeah, and he's a criminal.

Tier 1 - 

You're High Or Stupid.  Either Way...Pray.

Finally, the tier of players who have no right being out of a wheelchair.  True, they can win your season for you.  But there's no better way to lose your season outright than having one of these guys go down.  Remember the golden rule of running backs:

Talent is important.  Working legs are essential.

I would cringe watching these five walk a dog, let alone sprint into a pile of 300 pound beasts.

Jamaal Charles

Coming off a torn ACL

Adrian Peterson
Coming off a torn ACL

DeMarco Murray
Coming off a broken ankle

Darren McFadden
Needs a Feet Transplant

Michael Vick

Made of Glass

One final player worth mentioning - Matt Forte.  He's coming off a contract dispute, and was understandably unhappy about Michael Bush's arrival in Chicago.  However, I expect Forte to have a career year.  He's a huge part of an improved Bears offense, and despite getting paid already, I expect a stellar performance.

There's reasons to love and hate all these players.  And to Tim Boras, that means there's a great reason to trade them.  Know the risks, know the value, and pull the trigger.  

Tim Boras' Top 3 Predictions:

1.  Matt Forte finishes the #3 RB, edging out Shady McCoy.

2.  Lance Moore outscores Brandon Lloyd.
3.  Jimmy Graham leads the league in touchdown receptions.

That'll do it.  

Welcome back to Fantasy Football, and good luck in Week 1!

Free Publicity

Tim Boras Ends Holdout,

At Odds With Readers

By Champ Kind
AP Sports Blog Analyst

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Before “Trade Them All” started way back in October of 2010, Tim Boras was a highly sought after Free Agent.  That’s not to say his career was born in the spotlight.  On the contrary, his career had humble internetical beginnings - most notably his brief stint with LiveJournal.   Though many humans enjoyed Boras’ insightful and provocative take on Muppets with AIDS, the Muppet community as a whole found his views distasteful and uninformed.  The resulting backlash forced LiveJournal’s hand, and in the 2003 offseason (Summer), Tim Boras “resigned” from the team, though his departure in the light of the Muppet Scandal was more than transparent. 

Despite several modest offers from the likes of Myspace and Wordpress, Boras took a Six year hiatus.   It is during this time Boras says he received his Fantasy Football training from Japanese masters, though many speculate this is a metaphor. 

(During his absence in 2011, an anonymous source “close to Boras” made this claim:
“No, he didn’t study with Samurais on Mt. Fuji or anything like that.  When Madden 2006 came out he was banging this Korean chick.  I don’t think he ever even knew her name.  He always called her Ting Pee.  I’m pretty sure her name was Elizabeth.  But yeah, that’s when he started getting into football.”)

In 2009, Tim Boras announced he was making a triumphant return to the Blogging Circuit, and would be dedicating his writing to the Sporting world.  In a show of solidarity, Boras signed a One Article deal with LiveJournal.  In this highly anticipated editorial, Boras debunked rumors of his deeply engrained racism with a staunch support for Barry Bonds’ 2007 All-Star appearance.  Fans swarmed by the tens to read, providing fanatical support for the outcast writer, such as:

carberryhyn

Your site article is very intersting as well as fanstic,at the same time your blog theme is exclusive and ideal,great job.To your success.

Boras knew that with dedicated, knowledgeable, articulate fans like this, he would quickly become one of the most influential Sports Bloggers on the net. 

His confidence was not without merit, as the Free Agent Blogger soon signed a Three Year contract with Google Blogspot.  In 2010, his first year with the organization, Boras shattered the record for Tolerable Fantasy Football Articles (TFFA) with a league high 19.  The season was an all-around success. Google was praised for its persistence and faith in acquiring Boras, while Boras himself was praised for justifying his Front Loaded contract. 

In 2011, “Trade Them All” had vast viewership spanning the globe, and not just because many of his pictures are linked on random Google Images searches; mostly, yes, but not exclusively.  In fact, by 2011 Tim had literally dozens of readers.  Unfortunately, five articles into the season, Tim’s season abruptly ended due to undisclosed reasons. 

Rumors swirled about walking pneumonia, terminal hiccups, and vengeful Southeast Asians.  Two months after Superbowl XLVI, sources confirmed the real reason behind his sudden departure. 

Tim Boras was holding out. 

When reached for comment, he freely admitted, “You’re damn right I’m holding out.  Did you see my 2010 season?  I more than earned that money, and my contract should have been adjusted accordingly.  I will not write another article until my 2012 salary at the very least matches 2010.” 

Tim had supporters, but there was an unsurprising backlash.  The detractors steamed like lava on ice, as the hatred boiled and spewed out into Fantasy forums:

“Greedy!”
“One hit wonder.”
“I don’t know what we’re yelling about!”

“Muppet rapist!”

“I'm very disappointed in you.  -Love, Mom”

It was thought Tim Boras would miss the entire 2012 season, until he met with Blogspot officials in late July at a Chick-Fil-A in Oxnard, California.  It was there, over a 64 Nugget Tray, the two sides hammered out an extension, shook hands, and grabbed their free refills. 

The contract numbers are yet to be released, but Boras is slated for an article before Opening Day of the 2012 NFL season.  The ordeal appears to be in the parties’ respected rear view mirrors, but many assume tensions at Blogspot remain high. 

Regardless, a full 2012 season for Boras could put him back on track for the Fantasy Football Blogger Hall of Fame.  It will all come down to stamina and effort.

When asked if he felt his work would suffer as a result of the holdout, ala Chris Johnson, Boras, as always, was blunt in his response:

“Probably.  But I get paid either way.”

What A Jerk.

Nice blog you've got here, "Fantasy Guru."

Are there any actual blogs on this fantasy football blog? <---Name the reference for One Boras Buck. 

Here's a hint:

Ya know, The Fly is actually a really good movie, despite what you might think from this dude's acting chops.  Trust me, there are much worse actors out there than this bespectacled caucasian.  Watch anything with Taylor Lautner, or enjoy this classic and hilarious clip from Troll 2:

Dios Mio!

Why the hell haven't I been posting?

Am I too busy?  No, not really.
Is my fantasy team a piece of shit?  Sorta, but I'm 2-1.
Am I embarrassed by my awful predictions?  Of course, but that's not it.
I don't have a real reason for you.  Like most of your top draft picks I'm just a big disappointment.

Here are a couple of thoughts on my preseason predictions:

1)  It's amazing how much my predictions were contingent on Peyton Manning starting by Week 2, and are therefore horribly skewed.  Reggie Wayne won't approach 100 catches, and Dallas Clark will be even further behind.
       Side note:  Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have all but fallen off the map. These two could easily crack the Top 25 with Peyton around.  Now, they aren't worth a roster spot.

2)  Aside from Peyton, we've lost Jamaal Charles and Kenny Britt for the year.  I doubted Kenny, but there's no denying he was a Top 15 receiver before going down.  Based on KC's play so far, Jamaal was probably a tad overrated preseason, but he was undoubtedly a Top 10 back.

3)  Speaking of overrated, most mock drafts had Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall as top 15 picks.  Did anyone foresee such an awful start to their seasons?  I had them finishing 7th and 8th.  Depending on your league's scoring, there are anywhere from 10 to 17 players who have outscored Frank and Rashard combined.  Ouch.
      Side note:  I'm still holding out judgment on Chris Johnson.  Would you believe I actually wrote that before I realized it was a pun?  No?  Well...shut your face.  CJ is still shaking off the rust, and his pass catching ability can't be underestimated.  However, the clock is ticking.  Everyone should be in game shape by the quarter-season mark.  Those angry tweets are more glaring when you can't rush for 50 yards a game.

4)  The QB situation is all sorts of messed up, aside from the fact I forgot about Drew Brees in my rankings.   Vick isn't being used well by Andy Reid, and he can't seem to stay in the game long enough to get a good rhythm. I probably reached a bit high predicting Romo as a Top 5, but who knows what life would've been like with Dez and Miles healthy every game.  Big Ben has looked inconsistent at best, though Mike Wallace has emerged as a Top 5 receiver.
      My one good call:  Josh Freeman.  Ask yourself...when was the last time you associated Tampa Bay with a great fantasy QB.

5)  The ultimate underrated players:  Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski.  The Patriots offense is back in full swing.  Remember when we all thought the departure of Randy Moss would make Welker a Top 10 receiver?  Well, it took a year, but he went ahead and blew us all away.  Wes is a target magnet, and he has two mammoth fantasy tight ends to take the pressure off him.  I was correct in predicting a big year for Aaron Hernandez, but his injury has opened the door for Rob Gronkowski, who was dominant even before his counterpart went down.  Gronk is a goliath.  He is the mountain that catches.  

Yeah, I'm talking about this guy.

Side note:  Do you guys think Tom Brady might be racist?  Look at his favorite targets:  Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Woodhead, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez (who could pass for white, see?)  But then Tom always talks about how much he loves Randy Moss. Deion Branch, Ocho and Troy Brown.  He's like the white guy who says, "No, No, I love black people.  My best friend is black!"  Actions speak louder than words.  Keep cutting that hair shorter and shorter, Tom.  It's only a matter of time before you're full on skinheading like Jon Kitna.

___________________________________________________________________________

And here some bits of wisdom for Week 4 and beyond:

Jahvid Best is a Darren Sproles who actually runs the ball.

Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good play.  No, you won't be mocked for it.

David Nelson is a 6'5 slot receiver on a pass-happy offense.  That's Calvin Johnson's height.

Ryan Mathews is the man, though he's fragile, so don't give up on Tolbert just yet.

Ditto Ben Tate.

Not ditto McGahee, Caddilac, Jacobs.

Lance Moore and Colston are back.  You can go ahead and drop Meachem and Devery.

Someone in every league picked up Torrey Smith, and if you listen closely enough next week you will hear their regret.

Scott Chandler has caught 9 of 12 passes and 4 touchdowns.  There are 12 tight ends I would start over him.

Jason Hanson won't save your team.  But he can get you a hookup on Cialis.

Mark Brunell is still a 2nd string QB.  Not relevant to fantasy football, but it still surprises me.  I don't wish for injuries, but I do hope Sanchez goes down for a quarter or two.

The time to trade these players for high-to-mid value will expire soon: Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, and Chris Johnson.

Bye weeks are approaching - trade and hit the waiver wire early.  Don't go shopping on Christmas Eve.  And yes, I am overusing Christmas Eve as a reference.  It's 2011's version of "____ is the new Wes Welker."
_________________________________________________________________________

Hit up the poll, and enjoy your week 4.

And here's your final hint for the movie reference up top:  

It's also how I feel after I look at Michael Vick's fantasy points.