Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Boras - How Does Blowing a 50 Point Lead Feel?

I feel like a Japanese woman...menstruating?  Gross.  No, that's called Seppuku, or Hara Kiri.  I want to die. I'm not ashamed to admit I lost sleep over my epic fantasy loss.  The worst of it: my 50 point lead quickly disappeared at the hands of three...yes, count them, THREE 2nd option wide receivers.  Terrel Owens, Percy Harvin, Roy Williams averaged 19 points?
Ok, time to move on.  The more I think about it the more I want to jam a knife into my gut.

So, my 5 readers, what did we learn from week 5?  Here are 10 thoughts:

1) As I humbly admitted on Sunday, Brandon Lloyd and Hakeem Nicks are the real deal.  Orton and Manning are determined to get them the ball, no matter the coverage.  Most of you likely picked up Brandon Lloyd off the wire as a possible back-up.  Now it's time to start him.  You simply can't afford not to. Still not sure what he looks like?
Here's him checking out Chris Cooley:

Football is so gay.

2)  Mark Clayton was a wonderful surprise.  And like many surprises, the thrill leaves as fast as it comes.  He's out for the season.  His replacement?  Danny Amandola.  NOOOO, not another white receiver.  Is this just a fad?

3)  Kyle Orton isn't a bad choice to start.  Even against an elite defense like Baltimore, Kyle is accurate and confident this year.  He has great chemistry with Lloyd, an excellent check down receiver in Royal, and absolutely, positively no run game to detract from his passing.  Even on 1st and goals, Denver is a pass-first offense.

4)  Joe Flacco hasn't improved too much, but Ray Rice is back and better than ever.  With a full workload Rice is one of the best.  He finds holes, he seemingly never rushes for a loss, and he can receive with the best of them.  Also, Rice doesn't give up all of the goal line looks to McClain or McGahee.  He may lose some, but he was far more effective last week than the other Ravens' backs.  It's safe to say Ray Rice is back to top 5 status, and he might just be number...
He said it, not me.

5)  Austin Collie will lose his top 10 status with Pierre Garcon's return, but remain a top 15.  Amazingly, despite injury and despite the added receiver, Collie still managed 5 catches on 6 targets.  Peyton seemed happy to have Garcon back, targetting him 14 times.  However, only 6 of those resulted in catches for a measly 56 yards.  Those bad numbers, teamed with an injury to Joe Addai, should inspire Manning to keep the majority of his passes to Batman (Reggie Wayne) and the two Robins (Clark and Collie).
I told you football was gay.

6)  Matt Forte is the most frustrating player in fantasy football.  Remember when he was supposed to be a top 5 back?  Then he turned out to be a bust.  This year, we're told to draft him late and not expect he goes out and drops 30 week 1.  He follows that up with a decent game, and two absolutely miserable weeks in a row.  His rushing game is so bad he looks almost droppable, and then turns around with a monstrous week 5.  Not sure what to think of him?  No one is.  Unfortunately, he's probably a must-start the rest of the season.  He receives enough targets from his QBs each week to supplement his 2.3 yards per rush.    If you can trade him for great value, you should do it, if not just for the health of your heart.  If you're going to ride it out with him, you join the ranks of fantasy owners who have DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, and Cedric Benson, AKA The "I have no fucking idea" Crew.

7)  I correctly ranked Phillip Rivers as the 2nd best QB for Week 5.  However, I also ranked him as the 5th or 6th best QB of 2010.  I'm going to have go back on this.  Phillip Rivers has all the things you want in a fantasy QB.  His rushing game is in turmoil and inspires no faith.  He has a talented route runner in Malcolm Floyd (now a comfortable starter for your fantasy team) and the best tight end in football, Antonio Gates.  Can you imagine what this team would be like with Ladanian playing as well as he has this year?  Well, maybe not.  In any case, Rivers can easily make a case as the #1 fantasy QB this year.  He doesn't face any shutdown defenses the rest of the year, and things can only get better if Vincent Jackson is forced to suck it up and play.
Phillip Rivers, you are the man.
Aww, hey buddy, don't cry.  C'mon, give us a smile...
Ok...that's...that's terrifying.  Keep it up, Psycho, you're a fantasy stud.

8)  Terrel Owens is better than Ocho.  If any of you watch The League, you'll recall Ocho claiming he was worth a first round pick.  In truth, Ocho isn't worth a roster spot at this point.  After a big week 1 he's averaged less than 4 points the last 4 weeks.  Meanwhile, Owens is the only person Carson Palmer can throw to accurately, aside from opposing defense's hands.  It's astounding how bad Carson has been, but TO has been the lone bright spot the last two weeks.
Now, while I say with confidence that TO is a better fantasy player than Ocho, I also say with confidence that TO is not someone you will want to rely on the rest of the season.  Cincy plays some tough teams the rest of the year, including Miami, the Jets, and Pittsburgh twice.  There is no better time than now to sell TO.  People might be excited about him, so milk him for all you can.
Sorry, Terrel, I think your biggest games are behind you.

Noooo, c'mon!  Stop crying, guys!  You and Rivers are only confirming that football is gay!  Give us a smile...


9) Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy are the top 2 backs.  Who would you rather have, Boras?  That's one helluva good question.  Foster had the worst fantasy week of his starting RB career against the Giants.  Meanwhile, McCoy has responded to his bad week 3 with back to back great games.  You can expect both players to finish as top 10 backs, despite nagging injuries.  Foster's knee worries me more than McCoy's rib, and I think the big difference here is McCoy's receiving ability.  Foster is an excellent receiver as well, but McCoy gets targeted often.  Vick or Kolb, McCoy runs the same kind of delayed route, and with a below average Eagles offensive line he's frequently needed.  Foster is great, but McCoy is my choice.  Either way you're lucky to have them.

10)  I haven't discussed tight ends at all in this blog, so I've reserved this spot for the 2nd tier tight ends.  We all know Gates, Clark and Davis are the best of the best (I leave Finley out because of his season ending injury), so who are the best of the rest?
We learned that the introduction of a new receiver has damaged the value of Shiancoe and Keller.  They'll both still be nice options for their QBs, but they don't have the "necessary to the offense) qualities you want in a fantasy tight end.  Here are some examples

Zach Miller - Can you name a Raiders wide receiver?  Ok, there's Louis Murphy.  I know Darius Heyward Bey only because he's the highest paid athlete in the Bay Area.  God that's sickening.  Rookie contracts are retarded.
Anyway, the Zach Attack is a great option for your team.  It doesn't matter if the Raiders QB is black or white; they both love to throw it to Zach. He runs routes like Clark, has hands like Vernon, and has Gates-like speed.  Feel confident starting him.

Marcedes Lewis -  If you're like the guys in my fantasy leagues you picked him up 2 weeks too late and dropped him too soon.  He's used solid games as the bread in his shit sandwich.  David Garrard has a favorite red zone target, and it isn't MJD or MSW.  Lewis runs nice routes and is trusted by his team.  He isn't the sexiest starter, but he gets the job done more often than not.

Aaron Hernandez - There's going to be a lot about said about who benefits from Randy Moss' departure until the Patriots' offense takes the field against Baltimore.  Welker and Hernandez seem most likely, but I'm convinced it'll be Benjarvis Green-Ellis.  Hernandez, however, will certainly become the 2nd most targeted receiver.  Deion Branch's signing shouldn't worry you too much.  Remember when Joey Galloway was a Patriot?'ll be like that.  You should feel comfortable starting Hernandez, though you shouldn't expect many, if any touchdowns; just plenty of 12 yard catches.

I'll hit you guys back up later this week with some good waiver wire pick ups.  And as always, feel free to leave comments with trade advice, opinions, and general Boras sabotage.

Until next time, remember:
Football is gay.