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Sunday, October 2, 2011

What A Jerk.

Nice blog you've got here, "Fantasy Guru."
Are there any actual blogs on this fantasy football blog? <---Name the reference for One Boras Buck. 
Here's a hint:

Ya know, The Fly is actually a really good movie, despite what you might think from this dude's acting chops.  Trust me, there are much worse actors out there than this bespectacled caucasian.  Watch anything with Taylor Lautner, or enjoy this classic and hilarious clip from Troll 2:

Dios Mio!


Why the hell haven't I been posting?

Am I too busy?  No, not really.
Is my fantasy team a piece of shit?  Sorta, but I'm 2-1.
Am I embarrassed by my awful predictions?  Of course, but that's not it.
I don't have a real reason for you.  Like most of your top draft picks I'm just a big disappointment.

Here are a couple of thoughts on my preseason predictions:

1)  It's amazing how much my predictions were contingent on Peyton Manning starting by Week 2, and are therefore horribly skewed.  Reggie Wayne won't approach 100 catches, and Dallas Clark will be even further behind.
       Side note:  Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon have all but fallen off the map. These two could easily crack the Top 25 with Peyton around.  Now, they aren't worth a roster spot.


2)  Aside from Peyton, we've lost Jamaal Charles and Kenny Britt for the year.  I doubted Kenny, but there's no denying he was a Top 15 receiver before going down.  Based on KC's play so far, Jamaal was probably a tad overrated preseason, but he was undoubtedly a Top 10 back.

3)  Speaking of overrated, most mock drafts had Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall as top 15 picks.  Did anyone foresee such an awful start to their seasons?  I had them finishing 7th and 8th.  Depending on your league's scoring, there are anywhere from 10 to 17 players who have outscored Frank and Rashard combined.  Ouch.
      Side note:  I'm still holding out judgment on Chris Johnson.  Would you believe I actually wrote that before I realized it was a pun?  No?  Well...shut your face.  CJ is still shaking off the rust, and his pass catching ability can't be underestimated.  However, the clock is ticking.  Everyone should be in game shape by the quarter-season mark.  Those angry tweets are more glaring when you can't rush for 50 yards a game.

4)  The QB situation is all sorts of messed up, aside from the fact I forgot about Drew Brees in my rankings.   Vick isn't being used well by Andy Reid, and he can't seem to stay in the game long enough to get a good rhythm. I probably reached a bit high predicting Romo as a Top 5, but who knows what life would've been like with Dez and Miles healthy every game.  Big Ben has looked inconsistent at best, though Mike Wallace has emerged as a Top 5 receiver.
      My one good call:  Josh Freeman.  Ask yourself...when was the last time you associated Tampa Bay with a great fantasy QB.

5)  The ultimate underrated players:  Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski.  The Patriots offense is back in full swing.  Remember when we all thought the departure of Randy Moss would make Welker a Top 10 receiver?  Well, it took a year, but he went ahead and blew us all away.  Wes is a target magnet, and he has two mammoth fantasy tight ends to take the pressure off him.  I was correct in predicting a big year for Aaron Hernandez, but his injury has opened the door for Rob Gronkowski, who was dominant even before his counterpart went down.  Gronk is a goliath.  He is the mountain that catches.  
Yeah, I'm talking about this guy.

Side note:  Do you guys think Tom Brady might be racist?  Look at his favorite targets:  Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Danny Woodhead, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez (who could pass for white, see?)  But then Tom always talks about how much he loves Randy Moss. Deion Branch, Ocho and Troy Brown.  He's like the white guy who says, "No, No, I love black people.  My best friend is black!"  Actions speak louder than words.  Keep cutting that hair shorter and shorter, Tom.  It's only a matter of time before you're full on skinheading like Jon Kitna.

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And here some bits of wisdom for Week 4 and beyond:

Jahvid Best is a Darren Sproles who actually runs the ball.

Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good play.  No, you won't be mocked for it.

David Nelson is a 6'5 slot receiver on a pass-happy offense.  That's Calvin Johnson's height.

Ryan Mathews is the man, though he's fragile, so don't give up on Tolbert just yet.

Ditto Ben Tate.

Not ditto McGahee, Caddilac, Jacobs.

Lance Moore and Colston are back.  You can go ahead and drop Meachem and Devery.

Someone in every league picked up Torrey Smith, and if you listen closely enough next week you will hear their regret.

Scott Chandler has caught 9 of 12 passes and 4 touchdowns.  There are 12 tight ends I would start over him.

Jason Hanson won't save your team.  But he can get you a hookup on Cialis.

Mark Brunell is still a 2nd string QB.  Not relevant to fantasy football, but it still surprises me.  I don't wish for injuries, but I do hope Sanchez goes down for a quarter or two.

The time to trade these players for high-to-mid value will expire soon: Tim Hightower, Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, and Chris Johnson.

Bye weeks are approaching - trade and hit the waiver wire early.  Don't go shopping on Christmas Eve.  And yes, I am overusing Christmas Eve as a reference.  It's 2011's version of "____ is the new Wes Welker."
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Hit up the poll, and enjoy your week 4.

And here's your final hint for the movie reference up top:  



It's also how I feel after I look at Michael Vick's fantasy points.


Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Week One, Son.

It feels like Christmas Eve.  Football is one day away, and I can't wait to unwrap my fantasy puppy:
  Sorry.  Bad metaphor.

Most Vick owners are equal parts worried and excited.  Count me as one of them.  Not only does Mike have the Highest Expectations of any other fantasy player, but he's also top of the list for Expected Injuries (right behind Frank Gore, Peyton Manning, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson).
^ Talk about an elite group...

Plenty of owners have little to fear with their top picks.  Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, Roddy White, Aaron Rodgers, and Newly Signed Chris Johnson are all healthy and ready to put up their typical gaudy numbers.

And some owners will endure a stressful, unpredictable season due to their excellent-but-inconsistent stars.  These players include Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew, Greg Jennings, and Larry Fitzgerald.  These second-round picks will make or break most fantasy seasons.
Sure, there's a lot of talk about Montario Hardesty, but you can never count out this kind of beast:
Looks like Bo Jackson's been sampling Sammy Sosa's tanning techniques.

We love the preseason because of all the uncertainty.  It's easy to predict now, but after Week One it's a whole new ball game.  Everything changes once the Brandon Lloyds, Steve Johnsons, and Peyton Hilliseses of the new season rear their freakish heads.
But like I said, it's easy to predict now.  And so predict I shall.

Your Top 10 Positional Scoring Leaders Through Week 16 of 2011 
(Week 17 is for losers)

Quarterback

1.  Phillip Rivers
2.  Tom Brady
3.  Aaron Rodgers
4.  Tony Romo
5.  Michael Vick
6.  Ben Roethlisberger
7.  Peyton Manning
8.  Matthew Stafford
9.  Matt Ryan
10. Joe Flacco

Rivers with a full, healthy squad will put up huge numbers.  I predict 2 or more 40 point games.
Romo will be the comeback player of the year, and Miles Austin and Dez Bryant will be the league's best receiver duo.
Go ahead and count out Peyton Manning.  And be prepared for 280 points in 15 games.
Notably Absent: Josh Freeman.  Get ready for a lesson in regression, ala David Garrard

Running Back

1.  Chris Johnson                              
2.  Adrian Peterson
3.  Jamaal Charles
4.  Ray Rice
5.  Arian Foster
6.  LeSean McCoy
7.  Frank Gore
8.  Rashard Mendenhall
9.  Steven Jackson
10.  Peyton Hillis

The only obstacle for a huge year from CJ was the holdout.  No matter the league format, he's a #1 currently being drafted out of the Top 5.
Foster won't have last year's numbers, but he'll be close.
Frank Gore will play 15 games and come up just short of the Top 5.
Steven Jackson will play 16 games and rush for 10 touchdowns.
Peyton Hillis will lose some carries to his backup, but start every game of the season.
Notably Absent: Michael Turner.  No, Jacquizz won't have a big year.  But Turner won't have more than 2 multi-touchdown games.

Wide Receiver

1.  Roddy White
2.  Greg Jennings
3.  Calvin Johnson
4.  Hakeem Nicks
5.  Reggie Wayne
6.  Andre Johnson
7.  Vincent Jackson
8.  Mike Wallace
9.  Miles Austin
10.  Larry Fitzgerald

Roddy White will lead all receivers in yardage and receptions, but not touchdowns.
Greg Jennings will lead all receivers in touchdowns.
Except Calvin Johnson.  They will be tied.
Reggie Wayne will have 100 receptions.
Vincent Jackson and Mike Wallace will be tied for 30+ yard receptions.
Miles Austin will lead receivers in yards after catch.
Larry Fitzgerald will score the majority of his points in the second half of the season.
Notably Absent:  DeSean Jackson.  Maclin will have 10 more receptions and 2 more touchdowns.

Tight End

1.  Dallas Clark
2.  Jermichael Finley
3.  Jason Witten
4.  Antonio Gates
5.  Owen Daniels
6.  Zach Miller
7.  Aaron Hernandez
8.  Vernon Davis
9.  Kellen Winslow
10. Brandon Pettigrew

Dallas Clark will be the second Colt with 100 receptions.
Jermichael Finley will lead all tight ends in touchdowns.
Antonio Gates will miss more than one game and still finish Top 5...again.
Aaron Hernandez will have the most receptions by a tight end in the first half of the season.
Vernon Davis will get into 3 sideline fights.
Notably Absent:  Kellen Winslow.  He'll fall out of the Top 15.
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Good luck.  We'll reconvene after Monday Night Football.  Be sure to answer the new poll.

Saturday, August 27, 2011

And We're Off...

Vegas: Done. 
 Draft: Finished.
Liver: Hurting

Why did I leave here for a Hurricane?

As always, I feel pretty neutral about my draft.  Lord knows I'll end up trading most of them anyway.
In a Two Keeper League I retained Michael Vick and Ray Rice.  A powerful duo, sure, but there's a lot of risk.  Vick is likely to break something, and Rice is 4 foot 7.

I needed to get some solid trading assets with my next 5 picks.  Let's see how the 5th pick in the draft worked out for me in my newly converted PPR League:

Not all picks are in the correct slot due to trades.

The San Jose Steroidorizers got some decent value, which we can see based on:
ADP (Average Draft Position) vs BDP (Boras' Draft Position)

Frank Gore - ADP: 16.7   BDP:  21
Reggie Wayne - ADP:  31.8  BDP:  28

Mike Wallace - ADP:  27.2   BDP:  37
Jason Witten -  ADP:  52.3   BDP:  44
Dez Bryant - ADP:  38.2   BDP:  53


Reggie Wayne's ADP is no doubt skewed by Peyton Manning's health issues.  However, no matter the QB, Batman is a ball magnet.
Jason Witten was forced upon me early because of the PPR change in my league.  Obviously I'm hoping for 100 receptions, which I don't expect from Jermichael Finley.

I was surprised Frank Gore fell to me, but not shocked.  The shocks were Mike Wallace and Dez Bryant.  They done fell far. 
While Mike Wallace may not reach 80 receptions, he's a big time touchdown threat.  Dez Bryant has 100 catch ability, and he's a terror in the open field.

I could easily roll this lineup out for the rest of the season.  But...
I expect the trade values on these players to skyrocket after 1-2 healthy weeks.  Gore fell because of the injury risk, but when healthy he's as good as any fantasy back.  Wayne will be a top 15 without Peyton, and a top 10 with him.


My Draft Grade:

Would've been higher if I'd traded up for a 3rd Top 10 pick.  But it's still a pass.


New poll up top: get your vote in.

Friday, August 19, 2011

The Draft Cometh

I don't know what you're doing this Sunday.
You'll probably be sitting at home, convincing yourself to watch preseason football, and turning it off after the first two drives.  Mark Sanchez is boring enough in games that actually matter.
"This is how far I can throw it!"

I know what I'm doing this Sunday.
It's called Las Vegas, and I've heard the streets there are paved in gold. Most importantly, it is hosting my 2011 Fantasy Football Draft.

That's right. The Draft is right around the corner.  Have you prepared?  I sure haven't.
Instead I've decided to spend my time scaring you...WITH FEAR.

The following players will likely suffer from the following:  



1.  Sudden and extreme deterioration in skill

2.  Serious injury

3.  Lose their place on the depth chart

4.  Get arrested




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Michael Vick

You're a dick, Getty.

No, he's not going to get arrested.  That would be too obvious, and pretty funny.  Like the majority of people released from prison, he has turned his life around by immediately signing a multi-million dollar contract.  I think my facts are accurate.  Instead, you can expect Mike to suffer a serious (and likely terrifying) injury to his everywhere.  He's going to get demolished.  And he's going to throw like 20 interceptions.  And he'll actually probably get arrested again.
It's a bad year to be considered a #1 draft pick.

Adrian Peterson

Not meant to showcase the Eagles D.  They'll be mediocre.

Maybe it's because he's been such a workhorse.  Maybe it's because of his ankle.  Maybe it's because of the quarterback situation, and general "Uh, what do we have going for us next year?" atmosphere in Minnesota.  Whatever the reason, Adrian Peterson will be more like Adrian Peterson in 2011.  The sudden burst of speed down the sideline? Gone.  The frequent trips into the endzone?  Adios.  The casual 20 points he puts up every week? History.  AP is done.  You hear me?  He's done.


Maurice Jones-Drew

No one likes the bench, MJD. It's ok to be sad.

Sorry to all of you Jones-Drew owners, but he's going to lose his starting position to Rashad Jennings.  Maurice has been banged up for the last year, and his 4'9 body can't handle the beating like big people bodies. It's been a fun ride with Maurice.  He joined the NFL in 2006 and immediately became a consistent fantasy force.  Last year he could only muster 7 total touchdowns to Rashad's 4.  This year's numbers will be reversed.  MaJor Downer.

Calvin Johnson

You have to wear a suit in court.

Calvin Johnson will score 72 points in his first 3 weeks.  He will be targeted 54 times with 44 receptions.  You'll predict him breaking Randy Moss' touchdown record and having the greatest fantasy season of all time.  And then it will all shatter.  And no, I don't mean Matthew Stafford's arm.  
What I'm referring to is Calvin Johnson's arrest for running a weed farm in Northern Michigan.  Yup, arrested.  Lock it up.

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Projected Week 4 Status Report:


Michael Vick - Out for the season (Body)
LeSean McCoy - 6-8 weeks (Ribs)
Chris Johnson - 3-5 weeks (Holdout)

Peyton Manning - 1-2 weeks (Tickle fight with Eli)
Andre Johnson - 4-6 weeks (Concussion)
Adrian Peterson - DTD (Talent)

Jamaal Charles - Out for the season (Hype-itis)
Roddy White - 3-5 weeks (Julio Jones broke his ankles)
Maurice Jones-Drew - Questionable (Job Status)

Ray Rice - DTD (Contact high)
Larry Fitzgerald - 3-4 weeks (Boredom)
Aaron Rodgers - Rehab (Too much Super Blow)
Calvin Johnson - Career (Serving 10-20)





As always, feel free to post any questions or comments.  And make sure to answer the Poll at the top of the site.  Your input is needed so some can base their decisions on what others think.

Monday, August 8, 2011

Counting down the days...

Welcome back!
Thanks for coming back to the Fantasy Football blog voted Top 25 in ESPN's unofficial poll located in the comments section of an article about Jered Weaver's suspension.   <-- First hyperlink of the year
You'll find it in there somewhere.  It's all about viral marketing.

So, after a little bit of doubt...


Fantasy Football has Returned!

So many exciting things have happened since the lockout ended.
Big trades have occurred.
An exodus of free agent signings is wrapping up.
Tiki Barber is still as jobless as Shaun Alexander.


Let's analyze some of these pre-season dealings.

New QB in Town


1.  Donovan McNabb to the Vikings
This was supposed to happen two years ago.  Back then it might have been an exciting move.  McNabb to Harvin and Rice with AP towing the line had great potential.  In 2011, this was the most unexciting move of the offseason.  Minnesota's recent parade of once-great QBs has me wondering if this franchise isn't going the way of the 1990's Lions: Lots of Barry Sanders, and no wins. It's no wonder Sidney Rice bailed.  Expect no more than Top 15 numbers from McNabb with a high likelihood of injury or benching.
Verdict:  Who gives a shit?

2.  Kevin Kolb to the Cardinals
He's got a ton of potential, or so we've been told.  He had two great performances when he had his chance to shine in 2009.  After those, he expected to follow in the footsteps of Matt Cassel and become a franchise quarterback.  Unfortunately for him, the United States offers second chances and Michael Vick has risen like Jesus or Andrew Dice Clay on this season of Entourage.  But now Kolb has his wish and he is the unquestioned starter for the Cardinals.  He must be stoked.  Zona's lack of a running game means plenty of chances for Kolb to showcase his abilities, and he'll have one of the best receivers in Fitzgerald.  Don't expect a ton, but there's no denying he could crack the Top 10.


Verdict: Fitzgerald makes Kolb look like Kurt Warner.
Is that trophy wearing a blanket, or a cape, or what?

3.  Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans
Out with the Young, in with the Old.  I should write the headlines for ESPN.  In a switch of polar opposites, Tennessee has released Vince Young and signed 35 year old Matt Hasselbeck.  Matt's been known to throw for 3000+ yards, but he'll have to do it this year without Randy Moss and with a drugged out Kenny Britt.  With Chris Johnson around, Matt won't have to do much, but I still think there's a 75% chance Jake Locker takes over.
Verdict:  Like you'd ever consider drafting him anyway.

The Cock Blocks


1.  McGahee and McClain Fly the Coop
Ray Rice fans and fantasy owners had the same thought throughout 2010: "When will McGahee turn an ankle so Ray can finally become MJD 2.0?"  The Ravens have answered their prayers.  Not only are Willis and Le'Ron Le Gone, but Derrick Mason and Heap have also waved Bye Bye to B-Town.  Most projections indicate a 400+ touches season for Rice, and there's seemingly no one in line to hawk his touchdowns.  Barring an injury or a lover's quarrel with Joe "Ok, I panic a bit, but they still call me 'Cool'" Flacco, Ray Rice will be in the race for top scoring back in 2011.

Ray Rice fans' greatest fear:  Ray Lewis murders him.



2.  The Boys Buck Barber
Several years ago Marion Barber was simply fantastic.  Announcers boasted that he was guaranteed positive yardage every run.  They appeared to be right.  He amassed 24 touchdowns from 2006 to 2007 and was helping Dallas to put the name Smith behind them and look to the future.  Then, in 2008, Barber was losing ground, both figuratively and literally.  His yards per carry dropped over a yard from the seasons before, and Felix Jones was catching the eyes of whoever the hell ran the Cowboys.  Fantasy owners rightly gave up on him in 2010, and now Dallas has followed suit.  Barber has taken his cock-blocking skills to Matt Forte owners, and Felix Jones is the Big Dick in Big D.  He's got great receiving skills and he can run.  He's a guilt free choice for your #2 and has breakout potential.

3.  Bush and Sproles keep their Roles (with different teams)
I don't think any fantasy owners have ever proudly started Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush, though they've had their flashes of greatness.  Or at least goodness.  And now they'll have their chance to shine inconsistently with another team.  Sproles will have trouble finding touches behind Pierre and Ingram.  Reggie may split carries with Daniel Thomas, but Miami's offense doesn't inspire much confidence. However, it's hard to forget what Reggie Bush did on the college football field.  In 2011, all of the extra-curricular distractions are done and gone, he's in a new city, and who knows what he'll show us without all of the weight on his shoulders:


The Eagles didn't get Everyone this Offseason

David Akers has joined the San Francisco 49ers.  Adjust your draft rankings as needed.

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More to come as we advance through the preseason.