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Thursday, October 28, 2010

The Backup Plan

Yes, I'm talking backups.  But I'm not talking about this movie:

Does Jennifer Lopez really still make movies?  I thought she got replaced in Hollywood by Eva Mendez. And with a name like The Backup Plan, how are we not supposed to think about J-Lo's infamous ass-et?

C'mon...that thing can't be real.  It looks like she's halfway through a Professor Klump transformation from the Nutty Professor:

We're still in the middle of some crucial bye weeks in fantasy football, and there are also a few serious injuries which may be putting some of you in a bind.  Let's start with QB:
Brett Favre - He may play, but he's not playing well.  Moss hasn't changed things in Minnesota as much as I thought.  Despite 4 turnovers he posted a nice game against the Jets, but since then has put up two horrible games.  With a damaged ankle you can expect low numbers to continue.
Tony Romo - His collarbone will keep him out at least until the playoffs, which he won't make.

Your best waiver options:
Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jon Kitna
Tim recommends:
Kitna
Though Fitzpatrick has been putting up great numbers recently, I don't expect this trend to continue.  Lee Evans is just not a reliable number one receiver.
Still, the other Fitzy dropped a 30+ point game on BALTIMORE!  How can I resist?
Well, Kitna looked pretty good against the Giants after getting warmed up.  He's got several 4000+ yard seasons in his past, and he has the most talented wide receiver collection he's ever had in Dallas.
I know I preach to live in the now, but I've seen Fitzpatrick come in and play well for a few weeks several times in his career, only to collapse into a fit of turnovers.

When in doubt, go with the guy who looks most like a Nazi:  KITNAAAAAA!


At RB, if you followed my advice and picked up Mike Hart, it may finally pay off.  It's looking more and more like both Addai and Donald Brown will sit out another week, paving the way for Hart to receive the majority of the carries for a full game.  Against a weak Houston defense you shouldn't be surprised if Hart gets his 2nd TD of the year.

And if you also followed my advice and picked up Nate Washington...I'm sorry.
I should have looked at more pictures of him...
Chuck Liddell haircut?  Garbage.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Patience

Tim Boras loves prosciutto.  
He loves it in his sandwiches.  He loves it in his salads.  He loves it in his soups.
"It's just dried ham, Boras," You say.
I say, "Fuck you."
Prosciutto is more than just ham.  It's the best part of ham.  It comes from the meatiest, tastiest parts.  And most importantly, butchers and prosciutto connoisseurs spend up to two years making sure it is as delicious as the previous batch.  We're talking the fine wine of meat here people, and Boras takes his meat seriously.
You know what else Boras takes seriously?  Fantasy football.
And like Prosciutto, Boras knows that most fantasy football players need two years to ripen into a capable, well-rounded, weekly starter.
Case in point: Hakeem Nicks.
Here is Hakeem with the New York football Giants:
Look at him - he looks so BIG, so ~~F A S T~~
Here is Hakeem two years ago:
He still looks so BIG and so ~~F A S T~~
But wait...he's wearing a lighter shade of blue in this picture.  Is that...is that a North Carolina jersey?  He went to UNC?  Boras, who the hell plays football at UNC?  Don't they just play basketball?
He did go to UNC.  In fact, Tim Boras remembers watching unbelievable highlights of Hakeem Nicks his final year at UNC.  That was a year and a half ago.
Hakeem is ready to break out as a Tier 1 fantasy star.  He's ready, the rest of the league is ready, but the New York Giants aren't.  And if you're a Hakeem Nicks owner, you'd better be prepared to take leaps of faith.  As good as Nicks has been, he isn't the focus of the Giants offense. He isn't Andre, he isn't Roddy, he isn't Calvin, he isn't Wayne, and he isn't Fitzgerald.  Hell, he isn't even Wes or Collie.  Nicks is still a pleasant surprise for his team, but he isn't essential.  He isn't integral.  And for that reason, he isn't quite the prosciutto starter you want for your team.  He hasn't been fantasy-aged to perfection just yet.  Next year will be a different story.  For now, you're risking the 0's while being rewarded with the 20's.  It's one of those make-you-or-break-you fantasy moments some of us live for and some of us need medication for.
Here are a few others:
Brandon Lloyd
Kyle Orton
Arian Foster
Peyton Hillis
Jahvid Best
Ryan Torain
Percy Harvin


As usual, my advice is to trade these assholes while they're still on the top end of the scoring leaders.  Foster may be a top 5 back so far, but there is no way in hell he's as valuable as a Rice, Gore, Mendenhall, Steven Jackson or MJD.  You always want your team loaded with guys who get the ball 50-60% of the time.  The Fosters of this game always come back to earth.  Always.  If you've been watching football you know there is only one Adrian Peterson and one Chris Johnson.  That hasn't changed.  When another one comes around you'll know it.  You'll never hear the end of it. 

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Stroking It

The ego, that is.

Some things Boras noticed so far on Week 6:

Receiver Deceivers:
Like every decision in fantasy football, I was one week too late.
Brandon Lloyd had a nice run of catches down the stretch this week, but still finished with an uninspiring 7 points on 4 receptions.  Ok, it was against the Jets D, but still, it goes to show you what happens when defenses gameplan around you.
And speaking of gameplanning..
Hakeem Nicks - I knew you had it in you!  A big fat zero for Nicks against a suspect Lions defense.  The league is on notice that Hakeem the Dream is a beast when you let him run free.  Don't expect too many more shutouts against him, but do expect a lot more of Manningham and Steve Smith.


Bitches of Waiverly Advice:
How did Boras' waiver recommendations fare?
Alex Smith:  19 points, no turnovers (as predicted, sorta)


Shaun Hill: 9 points and no turnovers before suffering a broken forearm. Don't worry, Stafford's back soon.
Earnest Graham: 0 points, went down with an injury before registering a carry.  Nice showing, 0 turnovers!
Danny Amendola: 1 point.  3 catches for 19 yards and a couple of nice kick returns.  Not a lot of looks his way...who took all his receptions?  Danario Alexander.  Did the Rams receiver core come from Canada or something?
Tony Moeaki:  2 points - a season low 2 catches for 21 yards.  Dwayne Bowe stole the show with a big game.

Result:  If you picked up Alex Smith, you love my shit.  Otherwise, my bad.  Maybe Nate Washington and Mike Hart will make me look good.

And speaking of Mikes:  Keller > Hernandez

Friday, October 15, 2010

The Wire - Week 6

I can hear you fiending for them.
You've got the unscratchable itch.
Your palms are sweaty, your mouth is dry, you've got the shakes.
I know what you need...

Wait, this isn't that The Wire.
YOU NEED WAIVER PICKS!
I've got your fix.
Here are two players at each of the main positions who are probably available.

QUARTERBACKS:  Former and Forty Niner
1.  Shaun Hill 
Shaun Hill, a former Niner, is quietly having himself a solid fantasy year.  Let's pretend week 1 never happened.  He's averaged over 20 points the last four weeks, and had his first turnover-free game last week against the Rams.  The Lions don't have a good goal line back, and Jahvid Best frequently abandons the backfield to run short routes.  Hill isn't a terrible play for you, and he might remain a fixture in the top 10.
2.  Alex Smith
Did you just read that right?  Wasn't the entire crowd in his own stadium booing him off the field last week?  You can't prove that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbZ22j_X8fE&feature=related
Oh...nevermind.
So how did Alex respond?  He threw two touchdowns and nearly won the game for the Niners.  Boras has his doubts, but Boras also believes Smith will cut down on the turnovers and find Crabtree and Vernon Davis more consistently.

Runningbacks:  Be Earnest, and Show some Hart
1.  Mike Hart
Yeah, Addai looks like he's going to play.  Donald Brown doesn't, though, and that makes Hart the backup.  I expect the Colts to crush Washington, and that means a lot of second half rushes for the Colts.  If there is any kind of a lead, look for Addai to play mostly 1st downs, leaving plenty of opportunities for Hart to bust loose.
2.  Earnest Graham
He's cemented himself as the TD vulture of the Bucs.  Though Josh Freeman is playing well, the team is hesitant to let him throw in short yardage situations.  Once upon a time Graham was a sexy waiver wire pickup, and I'm willing to believe he's got 10 point ability in him again.  We all know Cadillac's knee is going to fall off at some point this season, leaving only LeGarrette Blount to steal some carries.  Fortunately for you, he sucks.
But don't tell him I said that.

Wide Receivers: Clayton's Replaycement and Nate the Grate 
1.  Danny Amendola
By now you've heard that Amendola had an awesome 19 targets last week against Detroit.  With Mark Clayton out for the year, and Sam Bradford desperately looking for someone besides SJax to rely on, you can continue to expect Danny to rack up the receptions.  He may attract more safety coverage, but Sam's found his new main man, and you can count on Amendola to answer your prayers.
2.  Nate Washington
He has three touchdowns on the year, and one of them came on his only catch of the game last week against the Cowboys.  It was a lob into double coverage and Nate came down with it in style.  Kenny Britt looks like the more consistent wideout for the Titans, but when it comes to the redzone, Washington is Vince Young's first look.  Give it a shot.


Tight Ends:  Tony and Jermaine, Blowin' Your Brain
1.  Tony Moeaki
On his resume this year:  One of the best catches in recent memory, Two touchdowns,  Three catches in his rookie debut, Four reception average.  Not sure if he's good enough for your team?  Look at this catch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jLM_NDkJ5U
I agree with the little kid in this video.  "That was tight."
2.  Jermaine Gresham
He was talked about a lot in preseason, and didn't disappoint in his debut, hauling in 6 catches and a touchdown.  So far that's been his only double digit fantasy week.  After three weeks of mediocrity, Gresham scored again last week.  With Carson Palmer throwing so many terrible interceptions, Ocho underachieving, and defenses focusing in on T.O, you can expect an increase in targets for the rookie.

Kickers:
Just pick one, fool.  If Gary Anderson could play in the NFL, they're all worthy of your team.
Haha...he looked like a retired school teacher.

Trade That Bitch Before She Steps Out

Sometimes, no matter how good a player is, you just don't want them on your team anymore.  They have their worst game when you need them the most, and that's the moment when you think, "I want to bitch slap the fuck out of him."
That's what we call a bitch slap.  A bitch slap for a bitch.  Remember the scene?  Here's the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPEbmkb16NY

Ari slapped him right out of HBO programming into Kay Jeweler's commercials.
If only your fantasy bitch would apologize like Adam "Played By The Best Actor in Hollywood" Davies.

There's no way to predict when a player is going to screw you over.  We're pure reactionaries in this game, and it's something we have to live with.  You can try and beat the system by going with your gut feelings, your sixth sense, your divine foresight.  More often than not, you end up trading them too early.  I'm not immune to it.  I do it every year. But I have a great way to mask it.  Remember: your mistakes look worse when they stand alone.  And that's why:


Lesson One:  Trade in volume
The more trades you make, the more you're bound to find a roster you're comfortable with.  There are dozens of starter-worthy players in this game, and whether you're in a league of 8, 10, or 12, you can easily mix and match your way into a fully decked out starting lineup.  Yeah, you may have a bench worthy of the waiver wire dregs, but if that is the sacrifice you've gotta make to have a decked out starting squad, so be it.  One bad trade isn't the end of the world if you've got 5 decent ones to balance it out.

Lesson Two:  Monitor Your Bye Weeks
Every year fantasy squads across the world suffer from Bye Week Panic.  Here are two options for you to ease the pain:
Option A) Research who in your league needs relief, exploit them, and stack your team with players with the same bye.  Chances are you're guaranteeing yourself a loss that week, but if you've played your cards right your team should be a monster.
Too difficult for you?  Or just too lazy to do the research? Then try:
Option B) Figure out which bye weeks will handicap you, and trade several weeks before they approach to mask your desperation.  Every league has 2-3 vigilant players, and 1-2 apathetic players.  The vigilant players will smell blood and demand more than you want to give.  The apathetic players simply won't give a shit enough to check their trade requests.  This means you need to act fast.  You may downgrade just a little, but bye week related trades are a lot like buying an airline ticket:  The longer you wait, the more expensive it gets.

Lesson Three:  They Are Only As Good As Their Stats
No matter how elite an NFL player has been in the past, when they suck, they suck.  Take Ochocinco - he has all the ability of a top 10 receiver.  In 2007 he was just that.  In 2008 he was god awful.  In 2009 he rebounded and was back to top 10 status. In 2010, he is awful once again.  Nothing has changed in his ability, so should you keep him?  Hell no.  Fantasy is all about the NOW.  If a star athlete is not contributing, ship them the fuck off your team.  
There are obvious exceptions.  If a player is off to a bad start but still touches the ball 50% of the time, you've got to ride it out.  I'm talking Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald status here.
But for those star athletes who just don't seem to be getting the ball like they normally do, it's time to say goodbye.  

In fantasy football, we are impulsive.  We are demanding.  We are impatient.  And we are ruthless.  Make that fucking trade before Ari has to slap another bitch: You.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Boras - How Does Blowing a 50 Point Lead Feel?

I feel like a Japanese woman...menstruating?  Gross.  No, that's called Seppuku, or Hara Kiri.  I want to die. I'm not ashamed to admit I lost sleep over my epic fantasy loss.  The worst of it: my 50 point lead quickly disappeared at the hands of three...yes, count them, THREE 2nd option wide receivers.  Terrel Owens, Percy Harvin, Roy Williams averaged 19 points?
Ok, time to move on.  The more I think about it the more I want to jam a knife into my gut.

So, my 5 readers, what did we learn from week 5?  Here are 10 thoughts:


1) As I humbly admitted on Sunday, Brandon Lloyd and Hakeem Nicks are the real deal.  Orton and Manning are determined to get them the ball, no matter the coverage.  Most of you likely picked up Brandon Lloyd off the wire as a possible back-up.  Now it's time to start him.  You simply can't afford not to. Still not sure what he looks like?
Here's him checking out Chris Cooley:

Football is so gay.

2)  Mark Clayton was a wonderful surprise.  And like many surprises, the thrill leaves as fast as it comes.  He's out for the season.  His replacement?  Danny Amandola.  NOOOO, not another white receiver.  Is this just a fad?

3)  Kyle Orton isn't a bad choice to start.  Even against an elite defense like Baltimore, Kyle is accurate and confident this year.  He has great chemistry with Lloyd, an excellent check down receiver in Royal, and absolutely, positively no run game to detract from his passing.  Even on 1st and goals, Denver is a pass-first offense.

4)  Joe Flacco hasn't improved too much, but Ray Rice is back and better than ever.  With a full workload Rice is one of the best.  He finds holes, he seemingly never rushes for a loss, and he can receive with the best of them.  Also, Rice doesn't give up all of the goal line looks to McClain or McGahee.  He may lose some, but he was far more effective last week than the other Ravens' backs.  It's safe to say Ray Rice is back to top 5 status, and he might just be number...
He said it, not me.

5)  Austin Collie will lose his top 10 status with Pierre Garcon's return, but remain a top 15.  Amazingly, despite injury and despite the added receiver, Collie still managed 5 catches on 6 targets.  Peyton seemed happy to have Garcon back, targetting him 14 times.  However, only 6 of those resulted in catches for a measly 56 yards.  Those bad numbers, teamed with an injury to Joe Addai, should inspire Manning to keep the majority of his passes to Batman (Reggie Wayne) and the two Robins (Clark and Collie).
I told you football was gay.

6)  Matt Forte is the most frustrating player in fantasy football.  Remember when he was supposed to be a top 5 back?  Then he turned out to be a bust.  This year, we're told to draft him late and not expect much...so he goes out and drops 30 week 1.  He follows that up with a decent game, and two absolutely miserable weeks in a row.  His rushing game is so bad he looks almost droppable, and then turns around with a monstrous week 5.  Not sure what to think of him?  No one is.  Unfortunately, he's probably a must-start the rest of the season.  He receives enough targets from his QBs each week to supplement his 2.3 yards per rush.    If you can trade him for great value, you should do it, if not just for the health of your heart.  If you're going to ride it out with him, you join the ranks of fantasy owners who have DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, and Cedric Benson, AKA The "I have no fucking idea" Crew.

7)  I correctly ranked Phillip Rivers as the 2nd best QB for Week 5.  However, I also ranked him as the 5th or 6th best QB of 2010.  I'm going to have go back on this.  Phillip Rivers has all the things you want in a fantasy QB.  His rushing game is in turmoil and inspires no faith.  He has a talented route runner in Malcolm Floyd (now a comfortable starter for your fantasy team) and the best tight end in football, Antonio Gates.  Can you imagine what this team would be like with Ladanian playing as well as he has this year?  Well, maybe not.  In any case, Rivers can easily make a case as the #1 fantasy QB this year.  He doesn't face any shutdown defenses the rest of the year, and things can only get better if Vincent Jackson is forced to suck it up and play.
Phillip Rivers, you are the man.
Aww, hey buddy, don't cry.  C'mon, give us a smile...
Ok...that's...that's terrifying.  Keep it up, Psycho, you're a fantasy stud.

8)  Terrel Owens is better than Ocho.  If any of you watch The League, you'll recall Ocho claiming he was worth a first round pick.  In truth, Ocho isn't worth a roster spot at this point.  After a big week 1 he's averaged less than 4 points the last 4 weeks.  Meanwhile, Owens is the only person Carson Palmer can throw to accurately, aside from opposing defense's hands.  It's astounding how bad Carson has been, but TO has been the lone bright spot the last two weeks.
Now, while I say with confidence that TO is a better fantasy player than Ocho, I also say with confidence that TO is not someone you will want to rely on the rest of the season.  Cincy plays some tough teams the rest of the year, including Miami, the Jets, and Pittsburgh twice.  There is no better time than now to sell TO.  People might be excited about him, so milk him for all you can.
Sorry, Terrel, I think your biggest games are behind you.

Noooo, c'mon!  Stop crying, guys!  You and Rivers are only confirming that football is gay!  Give us a smile...

Jesus.

9) Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy are the top 2 backs.  Who would you rather have, Boras?  That's one helluva good question.  Foster had the worst fantasy week of his starting RB career against the Giants.  Meanwhile, McCoy has responded to his bad week 3 with back to back great games.  You can expect both players to finish as top 10 backs, despite nagging injuries.  Foster's knee worries me more than McCoy's rib, and I think the big difference here is McCoy's receiving ability.  Foster is an excellent receiver as well, but McCoy gets targeted often.  Vick or Kolb, McCoy runs the same kind of delayed route, and with a below average Eagles offensive line he's frequently needed.  Foster is great, but McCoy is my choice.  Either way you're lucky to have them.

10)  I haven't discussed tight ends at all in this blog, so I've reserved this spot for the 2nd tier tight ends.  We all know Gates, Clark and Davis are the best of the best (I leave Finley out because of his season ending injury), so who are the best of the rest?
We learned that the introduction of a new receiver has damaged the value of Shiancoe and Keller.  They'll both still be nice options for their QBs, but they don't have the "necessary to the offense) qualities you want in a fantasy tight end.  Here are some examples

Zach Miller - Can you name a Raiders wide receiver?  Ok, there's Louis Murphy.  I know Darius Heyward Bey only because he's the highest paid athlete in the Bay Area.  God that's sickening.  Rookie contracts are retarded.
Anyway, the Zach Attack is a great option for your team.  It doesn't matter if the Raiders QB is black or white; they both love to throw it to Zach. He runs routes like Clark, has hands like Vernon, and has Gates-like speed.  Feel confident starting him.

Marcedes Lewis -  If you're like the guys in my fantasy leagues you picked him up 2 weeks too late and dropped him too soon.  He's used solid games as the bread in his shit sandwich.  David Garrard has a favorite red zone target, and it isn't MJD or MSW.  Lewis runs nice routes and is trusted by his team.  He isn't the sexiest starter, but he gets the job done more often than not.

Aaron Hernandez - There's going to be a lot about said about who benefits from Randy Moss' departure until the Patriots' offense takes the field against Baltimore.  Welker and Hernandez seem most likely, but I'm convinced it'll be Benjarvis Green-Ellis.  Hernandez, however, will certainly become the 2nd most targeted receiver.  Deion Branch's signing shouldn't worry you too much.  Remember when Joey Galloway was a Patriot?  Yeah...it'll be like that.  You should feel comfortable starting Hernandez, though you shouldn't expect many, if any touchdowns; just plenty of 12 yard catches.


I'll hit you guys back up later this week with some good waiver wire pick ups.  And as always, feel free to leave comments with trade advice, opinions, and general Boras sabotage.

Until next time, remember:
Football is gay.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Live Week Five

My apologies to Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Lloyd.  You guys is good.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Busy Ass Boras

This'll be a quick one.  Boras has to pay the bills.

Here's your top 5 scoring Wide Receivers, and the patented TAR (Tim's Actual Ranking - with explanations and shit)

1:  Austin Collie       TAR:  9
Why is his TAR so low when he's the number 1 ranked receiver through a quarter of the season?
Is that really the first question you're asking?  I would think your first question would be:
Who the shit is Austin Collie?

Ahh...another clean cut non-QB white NFL talent...so refreshing.
He kinda looks like Wes Welker.  He kinda runs routes like Wes Welker.  He kinda catches like Wes Welker.
Let's just call him Wes Welker and be done with it.  Will he stay #1?  No.  Reggie Wayne is more likely.  Or Andre.  Or Calvin.  Or Roddy.  Or Miles.  Or Fitz...nevermind.
Regardless, being a top 10 wideout comes down to how much your QB likes to throw to you.  Collie is a legitimate top 15 receiver when he's healthy, and given his start I'm going to call him a top 10.  Who cares about Pierre Garcon - players named Pierre are overrated this year.
Here's the thing:  Collie is a perfect #2 receiver for your fantasy team, but some people may think he has #1 status.  Put this to use:  try and stir up some offers in your league for a top 15 running back.  There are plenty of wide receivers comparable to Collie who you can get for less: Driver, Floyd, Bess, Bowe...

2:  Reggie Wayne      TAR: 1
Most everyone thought Batman was due for a huge statistical drop-off this season, including Boras.  I passed on him.  Foolish.  What we didn't realize was A) The Colts are a good, not great team, and B) Clark and Collie are at the top of their games.   This is opening things up for Wayne on a consistent basis.  He may not grab a ton of touchdowns this year, but don't be surprised if he has multiple games with over 10 catches.
As good as he is, and as good as he's been, don't shy away from trading him if you can get 2 good players out of it.  For instance, if you can get a top 15 running back and a top 15 wide receiver, it's probably worth it.  The TDs are too unpredictable for the Colts, whereas with some teams in the league you know whose hands the majority of them will end up in.  Get me?
No?
Sorry, it's late.

3:  Anquan Boldin        TAR:  6
Best asian in football, hands down.  He puts Dat Nyugen to shame:

Ok, he isn't asian.  But he does have samurai skills, chopping up secondaries left and right.  On a team with Mason, Rice, and Housh, Quan has emerged as Joe Cool's go-to receiver.  I rank him 6 because I can name 5-8 receivers who are more talented.  However, Joe hasn't looked too solid this year, and with his Ravens bound for a nice playoff race you can expect him to go with what works.  Quan was likely a great mid round pickup for you in your draft, and someone you should feel safe starting the rest of the season, even against tougher defenses.  His fast start can give you nice trade leverage, so you should definitely test the waters and see if any Cardinals/Ravens fans want to get their filthy hands on him.

4: Hakeem Nicks           TAR:  10
I wasn't a big Nicks fan until I moved to Jersey and was forced to watch Giants games.  The rumors are true. Nicks is a beast.  He's got size, he's got hands, he's got route running skills, and he has a QB who isn't afraid to air it out.  I do think Nicks has been overachieving fantasy-wise.  Some of his touchdowns have been garbage-time deep routes where the defense didn't give much effort.  Steve Smith is going to get plenty of looks, as is Mario Manningham as coaches start to gameplan around Nicks.
The good news:  Ahmad Bradshaw has looked solid, giving the Giants a formidable running attack they didn't have with Brandon Jacobs running the show.
Nicks will have a solid year, though I don't expect too many more big showings out of him.  It's a great time to trade him:  don't believe me?  Well, I just did.  So fuck off.

5:   Brandon Lloyd            TAR:  ???  20?
I think he's the second most attractive receiver on his team.  He's been catching a lot of balls, but Eddie Royal has the most game-changing ability on the Broncos.  Orton has been looking at Lloyd more, but that's going to end up hurting him as coaches gameplan on shutting him down.  Expect Royal to eat up the slot receptions ala Welker/Collie.
Lloyd is really ranked above Roddy White?  RIDICULOUS!
Trade this guy while he's still ranked high.  Most of you probably just picked him up off the waiver wire, but I'm certain you can get yourself a running back of "Beanie Wells" quality - while not actually getting Beanie Wells.  Cardinals running = poopy time.
TRADE HIM.  JUST DO IT.

I won't give you my top 10 wide receivers.  This is a receiver year - it's a deep position with multiple threats on each team - well, most teams.  Either way, we all know who the legit receivers are, and most of you are smart enough to understand who has been overachieving.  If you're not sure, ask me.  I'll tell you.  Me and receivers are like THIS, SON:
                  This is me and Braylon Edwards - after a night of drinking.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Your Top 5 Running Backs

1.  Ryan make it toRain


Just kidding.  This guy is good but if you think he's the savior of your team you're suffering from BJD - Brandon Jackson Disease.
We all know by now that the best waiver wire running backs are white.

Look at him...he's so upstanding.  I bet he went to a private school.

Anyway, that's enough racism for today.  Let's take a look at our current Top 5 scoring backs and give them the TAR treatment.

1:  Arian Foster            TAR: 4-6
Arian came out of nowhere, and I'll be honest, I didn't buy into it.  He had two great games at the end of last year, but that wasn't enough to warrant any excitement.  Steve Slaton excelled in the Houston running game because he was a great pass-catching back.  I figured Arian Foster would be as good as Ahman Green as an up-the-gut power back.  Boy was I wrong.  I recently sat down for an interview with Foster.

Tim Boras:  Hey, Arian!  Really nice to meet you.  Thanks for sitting down with me today.
Arian Foster:  Yeah, yeah.  No problem.  Let's make it quick, I have practice in an hour and I have to make sure I'm late.
TB:  I noticed that.  You're bailing on practices and showing up late already!  You must really be buying into your own hype.
AF:  I drafted myself in all 6 of my leagues.  Man, they benched me for a half and I still had a huge game.
TB:  It's true.  You did have a huge game.  And you have an awesome name.
AF:  Thanks, son.
TB:  Were you born in a Nazi Ice Cream shop or something?
AF: Fuck off.

That interview went well.  Better than anything Rachel Nichols has done.  Ever hear of braces, girl?


Back to Foster.  He won't stay the #1 back all year, but he'll certainly stay around Top 10 status.  If you're an owner you can probably trade him for a decent running back and a top 10 QB or top 15 WR.  He's great bait to fill some needs.  But if you really want to ride him out, keep doing voodoo on Andre Johnson.

2:  Adrian Peterson           TAR: Number ONE, SON
Not much to say here.  AP is as good as always, and with Moss coming back home to Minnesota like an Atmosphere song you can expect an increase in his numbers.  More gaps to hit on the run, and more dump off receptions.  One of the only guys in fantasy you should absolutely not trade unless you're offered 2 or more top players.

3:  Rashard Mendenhall            TAR:  6-8
Starting with Rashard, the 3-5 ranked backs are a shocker.  Rashard has had a nice start to his year, but his biggest asset has been the lack of a consistent passing game, and the lack of any RB competition.  Rashard has gotten all of the goal line looks.  With Big Ben returning Hines Ward and Mike Wallace will get a boost in targets, and Rashard might lose some 1 yard touchdown runs to the Big Ben sneak attack.  Even so, Rashard isn't a bad choice as your feature back.
But as always, if you know someone in your league is high on him, a middle tier running back like Ronnie Brown or Jamal Charles isn't a terrible replacement if you can also get a top 15 WR.

4: Jahvid Best              TAR:  12-15
Jahvid Bust had one huge game.  OH SHIT, did I just say Bust?  Yes, I did.  Will Best have another game like week 2?  I really doubt it.  He'll fall back in the scoring rankings substantially over the next few weeks, and not just because he's hurting.  Best is small and quick, but he's unlikely to have a 100 yard rushing game this year.  I'd be surprised if he cracked 80.  Kevin Smith will eventually step in and take away some carries, leaving Best as a Reggie Bush style flex option.
The positive on Best is his pass catching ability.  He runs down field like a wide receiver once a drive, and that supplements his poor rushing attack nicely.
In the end, identify the sucker in your league who thinks Best is the next Barry Sanders and make your pitch.  You've probably missed the window on his peak trade value, but it's never too late to get something for a guy you'll want to avoid starting the rest of the season.

5:  Darren McFadden          TAR: 12-15
Can I just copy and paste everything I said about Jahvid Best?  Darren had an amazing start to 2010.  Look at his scoring and you'll think you're looking at Chris Johnson's player card.  Unfortunately, the dream is dead.   His recent hamstring issues are going to drop him out of Top Dog status in Oakland.  It was Michael Bush's job, and it will be his job again.  The worst thing that could've happened to Run DMC owners last week was a Bush touchdown - it happened.  DMC has decent flex appeal as he's a decent pass catcher, but once again, it is time to find the sucker and make a trade.  You might be able to get an overachieving/underachieving wide receiver, like Hakeem Nicks or Steve Smith from the Giants, or even as high as Brandon Marshall if you can talk enough shit on him.

                                                                                                                                                                      

Tim's Top 5 Backs:
1.  Adrian Peterson
2.  Frank Gore
3.  Chris Johnson
4.  Arian Foster
5.  Steven Jackson



Who Is Your Daddy, And What Does He Do?





How is your fantasy team doing so far, Boras?


Arnie says it all.  I'm 2-2 on a 2 game losing streak.  Thanks for asking.  I have two of the top 6 preseason ranked running backs on my team.  They both rank outside the top 10 so far.  Ahmad Ali-Ackbar Muhammad Jihad Bradshaw is my highest ranked back.  What the fuck happened? 
Isn't fantasy AWESOME???

We've made it through four weeks, and as usual the Top 5 ranked players at each position are not even close to what we expected.  

Who the hell are these guys, and are they really this good?  Should I trade for them?  Should I make them my keeper?  Should I send them thank you cards in the mail and maybe some naked pictures?

Let's identify these players by rank, and give them the patented Tim's Actual Ranking (TAR) - With Explanations and Shit!

Up first...

Quarterbacks:

1:  Peyton Manning        TAR:  1
No doubt about it.  Peyton looks perfect.  His lone pick was an ESPN top play because it was ridiculously lucky.  The best part about Peyton this year: the Colts are mediocre.  The defense sucks and falls behind early.  The less-retarded looking Manning brother is going to air it out all year.
Worried about Joe Addai?  Don't be.  The running game is its usual middling self, and Austin Collie's pylon routes are the goal-line move.  So far this article looks like a waste of internet space...
2: Phillip Rivers          TAR: 5-6
Second best quarterback in the league...really?  With Vincent Jackson out who would have expected such delicious scoring from Rivers?  The three stooges (Floyd, Nannee, Davis) looked like trash the first two weeks.  Floyd has played well recently, but the main man in town has been Antonio Gates.  He looks like a homeless crackhead in Brooklyn catching Thanksgiving turkeys from Denzel.  Even with 50 guys around him he catches that ball.  Will Rivers finish second this year?  Doubtful.  But as long as Gates is playing out of his mind and running with two good knees you might as well enjoy.
3:  Michael Vick          TAR: 2
I won't give you all the sappy "What a comeback story" shit.  We're talking fantasy football, and I'm coming out and saying right now that if Vick can get healthy he is the second best fantasy quarterback.  He's my boy, and not just because he's on my fantasy team.  Ok, partly because of that, but mainly because he has looked insane.  I need a picture:

Damn it.  Bad choice.
He can run as well as ever, he can pass better than ever.  He isn't the most accurate but he has receivers that can go get it.  Make a play for him while he's injured - people may be worried Kolb is going to take his job.  He won't.  You heard it here.  
Hurry, before he drowns more puppies.

4:  Aaron Rodgers        TAR: 3-4
Not much to be said here.  Rodgers belongs.  If you're a Greg Jennings owner you're probably pretty pissed off he's getting the Randy Moss treatment.  Jennings is getting his TDs, but where are the targets?  They're where they've always gone - Donald Driver.  If you watch Wes Welker and Austin Collie and think, "Man, I need a guy like that," make a trade for Driver.  You can get him without giving up too much, and you'll find he's the best receiver option on the Pack.  Jermichael and Jennings will switch weekly on targets, but Driver always gets his.

5:  Kyle Orton           TAR: Uh....11? 
Didn't this guy used to back up Rex Grossman?  He's been playing well, and I bet Denver fans are really happy.  That makes Boras mad because he generally doesn't like Broncos fans.  All of his touchdown passes seem to go six yards.  For now, that's fine.  Ride it out like a fat chick when you're away from the crew.  But you'd better find yourself a more attractive option if you want to make it to the playoffs.  He's got big bust material.  This was supposed to be Joe Flacco's spot, and it still might be.  Don't expect Orton to stay ahead of Brees, Brady and Shaub for too much longer.  
Kyle Orton, man...doesn't that make you sick?


Tim's Week 5 QB Rankings:
1.  Peyton Manning
2.  Phillip Rivers
3.  Matt Shaub
4.  Drew Brees
5.  Tony Romo
6.  Aaron Rodgers
7.  Jay Cutler (Not Playing, But 0 is a huge increase from -3)
8.  Eli Manning
9.  Joe Flacco
10.  Kyle Orton
11.  Sam Bradford
12.  Matt Ryan

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5

We've had some player movement recently:

1) Marshawn Lynch - He's gone from the starting back on a horrible franchise to the backup back on a horrible franchise.  Don't invest.  If you have him, trade him!  Maybe you can get a decent deep threat WR like Santonio.

Current point average: 3.0     Point Differential: +0.2   Verdict:  Who gives a shit

2) Randy Moss - He's gone from the backup wide receiver on an amazing passing offense to the #1 option on a good passing offense. 


Here is what this trade does for your fantasy teams:

Randy Moss:
Current Average: 8.0      Point Differential: +5.5         Verdict: Back to Top 15 Status
-Moss, out of principle, will be targeted by Brett Favre close to 10 times a game.  No matter the coverage, Moss will have the ball thrown to him.  If you're worried about coverage keep in mind that Roddy White is double covered nearly every play and still catches most of the balls thrown his way.  Moss still has skills.  If you have him, feel blessed.

Brett Favre:  
Current Average: 7.0 (Ouch)  Point Differential: +10     Verdict:  Killed in Action by Bart Scott
-Ok, if he does come out alive against the Jets expect a huge increase in value. Favre will target Moss like Brady to Welker. Moss will draw enough attention to reopen things for Shiancoe (+2.5), and broken plays designed for Moss will mean more dump off receptions to Adrian Peterson (+5.0).  

Tom Brady:
Current Average: 20.8   Point Differential:  -3.5      Verdict:  Trade Him
-Look, Tom is still great.  That hasn't changed.  But with Moss gone it's clear the Patriots are investing in a new type of offense.  Green-Ellis (+5.0) will get a big increase in carries, and Tom will mostly look to throw slot to Welker and short routes to Aaron Hernandez (+3.0).  It's going to look a lot like Pittsburgh without the Mike Wallace.  

Wes Welker:
Current Average: 11.0  Point Differential:  +0.5    Verdict: Good Trade Bait, No Change in Status
-Welker may have added attention in defensive secondaries, but if you haven't noticed in the past 2 years his routes don't take him out more than 5-10 yards.  He's still going to get you 7 catches for 77 yards and maybe a touchdown if you're lucky.



Moss and Welker are in a perfect position.  They can be traded for great value, or they can stick around and you'll feel a slight to big increase in their numbers - at least target-wise.


If you have a sufficient back-up for Brady and need some backs or receivers, ship him off.  
Hey, I know.  You think he's going to try and throw 50 touchdowns again.  You think he's going to bomb it to Brandon lick my Tate (+0.69) 4-5 times for 40-50 yards.  Sorry, bud.  It isn't going to happen.  Brady will be making short passes 50%, handing it off 40%, throwing incomplete down field 5%, and texting Justin Bieber for hairstyling tips the rest. 
That's 5% for you math experts.   

I know it's hard...but it's time to say Goodbye to the Golden Boy.

Fly away, Tom...Fly away...

Where Do I Start?


Here.
This is where you live.  

Fantasy Football is a game of chance.  After the draft there isn't much you can do except sit on your couch, or pace around your house screaming at Andy Reid to throw McCoy the fucking ball every play.  Why not?  It works.  He gets you 4-6 yards every time, Andy!  You fat piece of shit.


Believe it or not, Coach Reid can't hear you.  He's going to have Kolb throw into double coverage, then run it up the gut for one yard and punt.  
Meanwhile you fall one reception short of the five catch bonus and lose another week.  
Do you cry?
Do you pray next week will be different?
This is what fantasy losers do.  They sit back and wait.  They hope.  McCoy was their proudest moment in the draft, their steal, their artfully deceptive sleeper pick.  

I'm here to teach you that allegiance to your favorite players, and pride in your draft is your one-way ticket to the consolation bracket.
I'll give you my player rankings, my addables, my droppables, and most importantly offer you trade advice (if you're ballsy enough to listen).  

Fuck loyalty, you're in it to win it.

-Boras