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Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5

We've had some player movement recently:

1) Marshawn Lynch - He's gone from the starting back on a horrible franchise to the backup back on a horrible franchise.  Don't invest.  If you have him, trade him!  Maybe you can get a decent deep threat WR like Santonio.

Current point average: 3.0     Point Differential: +0.2   Verdict:  Who gives a shit

2) Randy Moss - He's gone from the backup wide receiver on an amazing passing offense to the #1 option on a good passing offense. 

Here is what this trade does for your fantasy teams:

Randy Moss:
Current Average: 8.0      Point Differential: +5.5         Verdict: Back to Top 15 Status
-Moss, out of principle, will be targeted by Brett Favre close to 10 times a game.  No matter the coverage, Moss will have the ball thrown to him.  If you're worried about coverage keep in mind that Roddy White is double covered nearly every play and still catches most of the balls thrown his way.  Moss still has skills.  If you have him, feel blessed.

Brett Favre:  
Current Average: 7.0 (Ouch)  Point Differential: +10     Verdict:  Killed in Action by Bart Scott
-Ok, if he does come out alive against the Jets expect a huge increase in value. Favre will target Moss like Brady to Welker. Moss will draw enough attention to reopen things for Shiancoe (+2.5), and broken plays designed for Moss will mean more dump off receptions to Adrian Peterson (+5.0).  

Tom Brady:
Current Average: 20.8   Point Differential:  -3.5      Verdict:  Trade Him
-Look, Tom is still great.  That hasn't changed.  But with Moss gone it's clear the Patriots are investing in a new type of offense.  Green-Ellis (+5.0) will get a big increase in carries, and Tom will mostly look to throw slot to Welker and short routes to Aaron Hernandez (+3.0).  It's going to look a lot like Pittsburgh without the Mike Wallace.  

Wes Welker:
Current Average: 11.0  Point Differential:  +0.5    Verdict: Good Trade Bait, No Change in Status
-Welker may have added attention in defensive secondaries, but if you haven't noticed in the past 2 years his routes don't take him out more than 5-10 yards.  He's still going to get you 7 catches for 77 yards and maybe a touchdown if you're lucky.

Moss and Welker are in a perfect position.  They can be traded for great value, or they can stick around and you'll feel a slight to big increase in their numbers - at least target-wise.

If you have a sufficient back-up for Brady and need some backs or receivers, ship him off.  
Hey, I know.  You think he's going to try and throw 50 touchdowns again.  You think he's going to bomb it to Brandon lick my Tate (+0.69) 4-5 times for 40-50 yards.  Sorry, bud.  It isn't going to happen.  Brady will be making short passes 50%, handing it off 40%, throwing incomplete down field 5%, and texting Justin Bieber for hairstyling tips the rest. 
That's 5% for you math experts.   

I know it's hard...but it's time to say Goodbye to the Golden Boy.

Fly away, Tom...Fly away...

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